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Market Crash Fears Begin to Ease

Earlier in the week, some analysts warned that an adverse ruling on tariffs could spark a broader market downturn, including a sharp correction in crypto. The fear centered on the idea that large refund obligations could force the Treasury to issue more bonds, pushing yields higher and draining liquidity from risk assets.

However, those concerns eased after the Supreme Court delayed its timeline in a separate ruling, pushing the tariff decision further out. This reduced immediate pressure on markets and helped stabilize sentiment.

Strong Cash Reserves Provide a Backstop

Bessent also highlighted the Treasury’s strong cash position. Government cash balances currently stand near $774 billion and are expected to rise toward $850 billion by the end of March 2026. This buffer signals there is no need for emergency borrowing or aggressive bond issuance to fund potential refunds.

For crypto markets, the fears of a sudden liquidity-driven crash tied to Trump tariff refunds appear overblown, at least for now. With ample reserves and a delayed court timeline, systemic risk from this issue has moved to the background.

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FAQs

Could Trump-era tariff refunds really crash the crypto market?

Unlikely. Treasury officials say refunds would be gradual and funded from existing cash, reducing the chance of a sudden liquidity shock hitting crypto.

What did the U.S. Treasury say about handling tariff refunds?

The Treasury said it has ample liquidity and plans to spread refunds over time, avoiding disruption to bond markets or broader financial stability.

Has the Supreme Court made a final decision on the tariffs?

No. The court has delayed its timeline, easing near-term pressure and giving markets more time before any potential refund process begins.

How strong is the U.S. Treasury’s current cash position?

Treasury cash reserves are around $774 billion and expected to rise, providing a strong buffer against refund-related financial stress.