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Odds of a U.S. Shutdown Drop by 26%

According to the prediction market Kalshi data, the odds of a U.S. government shutdown have declined significantly to 26% in recent days. 

Just weeks ago, worries around federal funding and political delays pushed shutdown odds close to 38%, making traders more cautious and increasing market tension.

This drop suggests that markets are warming to the idea that Congress may pass a spending deal or continuing resolution in time to prevent a shutdown.

How Shutdown Fears Hit Crypto

The fears of a possible U.S. government shutdown also affected the crypto market. During the panic, the total crypto market value fell from $3.15 trillion to $2.95 trillion, wiping out nearly $200 billion.

The uncertainty made traders cautious, as shutdowns can delay important economic data and policy decisions. During this period, Bitcoin fell nearly 6%, dropping from around $93,000 to below $87,500.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs also saw heavy selling, with more than $600 million in outflows over two weeks. This added extra pressure on the market.

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FAQs

What are the chances of a U.S. government shutdown in January 2026?

Prediction markets now show a 26% chance, down from nearly 38%, suggesting reduced concern about an imminent shutdown.

Why has the risk of a shutdown decreased recently?

A 2025 funding law pre-funded 85–95% of federal spending through September 2026, reducing reliance on short-term funding bills.

Is a government shutdown still possible in January 2026?

Yes. Lawmakers must pass remaining spending bills or a stopgap resolution by January 30, or parts of the government could shut down.

Why do government shutdowns affect Bitcoin and crypto prices?

Shutdowns delay economic data and policy decisions, increasing uncertainty and causing investors to reduce exposure to risky assets like crypto.